Today, we’d like to introduce the Horizon Scanning Toolbox, which we designed and implemented by Anna Sacio-Szymańska and Bartosz Frąckowiak as part of the Project IDEALIST, where 4CF The Futures Literacy Company is one of the partners. This toolbox is primarily designed for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) seeking to identify emerging macro-environmental changes, comprehend their potential future impacts, and build organisational resilience and capacity today to address future challenges. 

Although initially tailored for SMEs, the methods and tools we’ve curated are highly adaptable to various organisations and contexts. They are ideal for those aiming to:

• integrate proactive reflection on change and the future into their organisational culture
• learn about strategic foresight methods and apply them in practice,
• understand how to detect signals of change, build sensitivity to recognize them, and distinguish valuable insights from noise.

Our toolkit provides a step-by-step guide for facilitating a workshop, allowing you, regardless of the industry ecosystem you operate in, to identify and analyse disruptors that could significantly shape your future. Inside, you will find:

• comprehensive foresight toolbox manual,
• link to Miro board with ready-to-use workshop templates,
• a detailed agenda for facilitators,
• introduction to foresight with slides for facilitators and participants.

Through our materials you will learn how to:

• identify uncertainties about the future of your ecosystem, and understand what elements of your ecosystem may be most vulnerable to change (Rip van Winkle method),
• collect signals from selected sources through targeted scanning,
• distinguish between valuable signals and mere noise,
• analyse, organise, and prioritise findings using a dedicated template, where you can evaluate signals based on potential impact and time to maturity. This process generates a matrix that helps you manage attention by indicating which signals require immediate action and which can be addressed through longer-term initiatives like research or R&D,
• create maps of drivers, signals and disruptors based on their estimated impact and time to maturity,
• explore the possible implications of identified signals and brainstorm recommendations for decision-making.

The Horizon Scanning Toolbox has already been successfully tested across three European industrial ecosystems: Aerospace & Defence, Energy-Intensive Industries, and Mobility, Transport & Automotive (MTA). 

We are eager to hear how it performs in other ecosystems. If you’ve worked with it, let us know — how has it been useful, and what challenges has it helped you address?

Please spread the word and pass it on to anyone you think might find it useful.

Run a Horizon Scanning workshop with our toolbox!