A step-by-step guide to designing a Delphi study

(first step: make it a Real-Time Delphi)

So, you’re considering a Delphi study to harness expert insights? Excellent choice. But you might be wondering about the format – the classic, multi-round Delphi (MRD) or its more modern evolution, Real-Time Delphi (RTD)? While the classic Delphi laid the groundwork, let’s be clear: for most applications today, RTD offers significant advantages. Traditional Delphi is impractically slow, resource-intensive, and prone to participant fatigue, while inherently restricting the dynamic interaction essential for deep understanding and truly informed insights.

Real-Time Delphi, powered by dedicated online platforms, overcomes these hurdles. It provides immediate feedback, allows dynamic interaction, and fosters greater participant engagement through a continuous, more efficient process. Crucially, modern, next-generation RTD platforms go far beyond just speed; they are designed with features that actively facilitate deeper understanding, better exploration of reasoning, and more meaningful interaction than typically achievable in multi-round Delphi’s fragmented cycles.

Therefore, while the foundational principles of good study design apply broadly, this guide focuses primarily on the practical steps for designing an effective Real-Time Delphi study, as it represents the more powerful, flexible, and efficient approach today. Many core elements (clear objectives, expert selection, thoughtful questions) are relevant if you must use a classic multi-round Delphi, but be aware that MRD involves significant additional logistical complexities related to managing sequential rounds not covered in detail here. 

The following sections outline the design process for achieving robust results with a Real-Time Delphi survey:

New to the Delphi method?

Start with the basics!

Delphi Basics

Step 1: Define your objective clearly – what deep understanding are you seeking?

This is the bedrock. Vague goals lead to vague results. Before recruiting experts or writing questions, get crystal clear on your purpose:

What specific complex problem or uncertain futures are you trying to illuminate?

What core questions need answers grounded in diverse expertise and reasoning?

Are you aiming for forecasts, strategic options, policy recommendations, identifying priorities, or primarily building a shared, nuanced understanding among stakeholders?

What does a successful, insightful outcome look like for this specific project?

A sharp objective focuses every subsequent decision.

Step 2: Select your facilitation platform – choosing your interactive environment

This is a critical decision for modern RTD, going far beyond basic survey functionality:

It’s not just a tool, it’s the environment: The platform dictates how participants interact, how feedback is displayed, how reasoning is explored, and ultimately, how deep the resulting understanding can be.

Basic vs. next-generation: Understand the vast difference. Basic tools might offer real-time averages and comment lists, but the overall design can lead to superficial engagement. Next-generation RTD platforms are specifically designed to facilitate deep understanding and interaction.

Essential capabilities to look for:

  • Intuitive user experience: Is it effortless for both participants and administrators? Clunky UX kills engagement.
  • Effortless reasoning exploration: How easy is it to find, read, filter, sort, and connect qualitative comments to specific viewpoints or ratings? This is non-negotiable for deep insight.
  • Meaningful interaction features: Does the tool support structured discussion, comment rating, or visualizing opinion shifts to foster genuine learning?
  • Clear data visualization & guidance: Does it effectively show distributions (not just averages)? Does it guide attention to key areas?
  • Robust analysis support: How well does it support the analysis of qualitative data? Does it offer helpful export options?
  • Security & reliable authentication: Ensure data protection and reliable user identification (avoiding login systems prone to creating duplicates).

Modern platforms should be architected around these principles, explicitly designed to make the sophisticated process of collective reasoning intuitive and insightful. Your platform choice directly enables or limits the quality of your study.

Step 3: Craft your questionnaire – designing for reasoning, not just answers

The instrument guides the conversation. Design it for depth:

Prioritize qualitative reasoning: The ‘why’ is paramount. Ensure every key quantitative assessment is paired with a prompt for justification that can be easily found by other participants.

Keep question types simple and focused: Avoid overly complex formats like large matrices or rankings that make providing specific, clear justifications difficult. Simpler formats (sliders, Likert scales) paired with a comments thread usually yield richer, more interpretable reasoning.

Clarity and neutrality: Use unambiguous, jargon-free, neutral language. Avoid leading questions that suggest a desired answer.

Logical flow and manageable length: Organize questions logically, but respect participant time. Resist the ‘kitchen sink’ temptation. A focused study yielding deep insights is better than an overly long one generating fatigue and superficial answers. Pilot test rigorously!

Avoid self-rated expertise: Research shows it’s a poor predictor of accuracy and can be counter-productive. 

Avoid providing disaggregated feedback: Showing feedback broken down by participant subgroups introduces potential biases related to group authority or identity, undermining the principle of judging arguments on merit alone. 

Embed data protection from the start: A common rookie mistake is overlooking data privacy. Ensure your questionnaire includes clear consent clauses and privacy information right at the beginning, explaining how data will be used, stored, and anonymized, in line with GDPR or other relevant regulations and your organization’s policies.

Step 4: Identify and recruit your expert panel – who holds the keys to insight?

Delphi relies on tapping relevant knowledge, but expertise is multifaceted:

Defining ‘expert’ holistically: Look beyond just credentials or titles. Consider practical experience, diverse analytical skills, stakeholder perspectives, and cognitive styles (specifically seeking adaptable, multidisciplinary ‘foxes’ while being cautious of potentially overconfident ‘hedgehogs’ – see our “Expert overconfidence: Addressing the ‘hedgehog’ problem in Delphi panels” article). True insight often comes from combining different types of knowledge.

Panel size: RTD platforms allow flexibility, easily handling both very small and very large panels. However, prioritize quality of engagement over sheer numbers. A highly engaged panel of 10 often yields more insight than a disengaged panel of 100.

Motivation and communication: Clearly articulate the study’s value, the expected (realistic) time commitment, and how participant input will be used. Secure genuine buy-in.

Step 5: Plan the study logistics – ensuring smooth execution

Timeline: Set a realistic window for participation (typically 1-3 weeks for RTD), balancing the need for reflection with maintaining momentum. Communicate dates clearly.

Participant briefing: Provide concise instructions covering goals, process, platform use, anonymity/privacy, and support contacts.

Facilitation and engagement: While RTD automates much, plan for active monitoring. Check progress, potentially use platform features for automated, personalized reminders or digests highlighting relevant activity (new comments, shifts in consensus) to re-engage participants thoughtfully.

Step 6: Plan your analysis strategy – extracting deep meaning

Think beyond final scores before you launch:

Quantitative: Look at distributions, stability over time, interquartile ranges, and subgroup differences (analyzed post-study), not just the final mean/median.

Qualitative (critical focus): Allocate significant time for systematically analyzing the justifications. Identify patterns, underlying assumptions, areas of consensus/dissent in reasoning, and novel insights.

Platform support: Leverage platform features that aid qualitative analysis.

Synthesis: Plan how to weave quantitative and qualitative findings together for a rich, holistic understanding.

Consider seeking expert support

While this guide provides essential steps, Delphi methodology has many nuances best learned through experience. If this is your first major Delphi project, or if the stakes are high, consider seeking support from practitioners with deep expertise. Getting guidance on study design, questionnaire crafting, panel management, or results analysis and reporting can significantly enhance the quality and impact of your study. Organizations like 4CF have teams with extensive experience across numerous Delphi projects and offer services ranging from targeted support to full end-to-end project execution. If budget constraints make external support impossible, ensure you thoroughly review resources on best practices, common pitfalls, and lessons learned before you begin. You can start with these:

Thoughtful design unlocks profound insight

Conducting your first Real-Time Delphi study can be immensely rewarding, providing a level of nuanced understanding that few other methods can match efficiently. Success, however, is born from deliberate design. By carefully defining your objective, thoughtfully selecting your panel (prioritizing cognitive diversity), crafting questions for reasoning, choosing a platform designed for deep interaction, and planning your logistics and analysis with insight in mind, you pave the way for meaningful results.

Don’t underestimate the transformative impact of using a next-generation RTD platform. These tools are designed to make the sophisticated methodology manageable and to maximize the potential for genuine collective intelligence and deep understanding. Investing in thoughtful design, and exploring capable platform options like 4CF Halnyx 2.0, dramatically increases the likelihood that your first RTD study delivers not just data, but the profound, actionable insights you need.

Experience the power of 4CF Halnyx 2.0

Interested in Delphi and RTD? Explore our expert series:

4CF Delphi Expert Series offers comprehensive insights, drawing on extensive experience, covering everything from the fundamentals to advanced applications and the crucial role of next-generation platforms. Whether you're new to Delphi or an experienced practitioner, explore these articles to deepen your knowledge and enhance your results.

Explored these? Discover even more in our full Delphi series

Interested in Delphi and RTD? Explore our expert series:

4CF Delphi Expert Series offers comprehensive insights, drawing on extensive experience, covering everything from the fundamentals to advanced applications and the crucial role of next-generation platforms. Whether you're new to Delphi or an experienced practitioner, explore these articles to deepen your knowledge and enhance your results.

Explored these? Discover even more in our full Delphi series

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By subscribing to our newsletter, you consent to the processing of the provided data. The data controller is 4CF Sp. z o.o., its registered office is located in Warsaw, 10/14 Trzech Krzyży Square, postal code: 00-499.

We process your data solely for the purpose of sending information about 4CF Sp. z o.o. and its activities via e-mail. Your data will be processed until your consent is revoked through a  link that will be included in each newsletter. The withdrawal of consent shall not affect the lawfulness of processing based on consent before its withdrawal. Providing your data is voluntary, but necessary if you wish to receive information about 4CF Sp. z o.o. and its activities. We may transfer the data to our suppliers of services related to the processing of personal data, e.g. IT service providers. Such entities process data on the basis of a contract with our company and only in accordance with our instructions. You have the right to request access to your personal data, its rectification, deletion or limitation of processing, as well as the right to lodge a complaint with the supervisory authority. More information about your rights and about the processing of your personal data can be found in our privacy policy.