In Foresight-on-Demand (FOD) study, Katarzyna Figiel and Michał Nadziak show how demographic decline will act as a stress multiplier across Europe’s research, innovation, and economic ecosystem.

What’s coming is a projected 12% drop in the overall labour force, roughly 25 million fewer workers, alongside a shrinking youth population. This shift challenges the foundations of Europe’s prosperity and competitiveness.

4 ways this might reshape Europe’s R&I and economy:

• When labour’s contribution to GDP growth turns negative (from the late 2020s), productivity becomes the main engine of prosperity. At the same time, ageing-related costs (pensions + healthcare) are projected to rise toward 25.6% of GDP, squeezing public budgets, including R&I.
• The traditional model (“new young talent replaces retirees”) is becoming obsolete. The 21–26 cohort (key for universities and PhDs) is projected to peak in 2035 and then shrink by ~2.5 million by 2050. With 50-year careers becoming normal, Europe needs a shift to cyclical human capital: lifelong learning, reskilling, and sabbatical-style upskilling funding.
• Under fiscal pressure, there’s a real risk that fundamental research (the seed corn of future breakthroughs) gets traded for short-term, applied returns. And if the state retreats, private capital may dominate, potentially sidelining public-interest science. Meanwhile, automation to offset labour shortages must earn a social licence or face “digital fatigue” backlash.

What to do: 4 strategic mandates

• Protection: ring-fence funding for fundamental research
• Adaptation: build systemic lifelong learning infrastructure
• Cohesion: create a European Network of Regional Innovation Campuses to anchor talent and leverage local strengths (e.g., the Silver Economy)
• Trust: embed citizens in R&I so rapid automation aligns with societal values

Thank you to all experts and our project partners: AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, ISINNOVA – Research Innovation Sustainability, Visionary Analytics UAB, IDEA Consult, Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Insight Foresight Institute (IFI), Turun yliopisto – University of Turku, Technopolis Consulting Group Belgium SPRL, RAND Europe, Zentrum für soziale Innovation (ZSI), Technologické centrum Praha, Institutul de Prospectiva, ARCTIK – Communication for Sustainability.

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