Report on the conference ‘Development priorities for the next decade: socially acceptable transformations in the context of the Concept of National Development 2050’

On 10 July 2024, a conference organised by the Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy was held on the development priorities of our country for the next decade. The discussion focused on three main points: the biggest threats in the 2035 perspective, the opportunities that can be seized over the next decade to ensure more effective development of Poland, and the energy transition.

The conference was opened by Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, Minister of Development Funds and Regional Policy. In her speech, she stressed the importance of long-term planning in unstable times and the need to set clear directions for the country’s development:

In times of storms, setting a direction is even more important than in calm seas. […] Planning makes sense and is essential to meet the challenges we face today. We need to work together to pursue ambitious and realistic priorities that will build a sense of certainty and meaning.

She also highlighted three main goals that are crucial for Poland’s development: overcoming unfavourable demographic trends, maintaining the competitiveness of the economy and ensuring polycentric spatial development. She also pointed out that it is necessary to support young people and their families, promote a secure migration policy, and take a strategic approach to energy and economic transition so that Poland can successfully meet the challenges of the future.

The panel discussion was chaired by Norbert Kołos, managing partner of 4CF, a company specialising in strategic foresight. Panellists included: Dr Maciej Bukowski, Prof Rafał Matyja, Dr Jakub Sawulski, Kamil Sobolewski, Prof Agnieszka Sowa-Kofta and Prof Krystian Szczepański.  The discussion covered a wide range of topics related to development priorities for the coming decade. Norbert Kołos opened the debate with a somewhat provocative question about the sense of conducting long-term considerations in the face of today’s dynamic geopolitical, economic and climate changes.

Experts agreed that it is worth thinking about the future, but the ways in which it should be approached were controversial. Professor Rafał Matyja of the Cracow University of Economics, a political scientist and historian, expressed scepticism about the possibility of predicting the future 25 years ahead, arguing that history teaches us about the unpredictability of events. However, he stressed the importance of shorter, 10-year plans, which are essential for managing the state’s budget and infrastructure.

Dr Maciej Bukowski, on the other hand, presented a slightly different approach, arguing that structurally the future is quite predictable. He stressed that despite numerous historical events, such as wars and crises, certain elements of the state, such as demographics and infrastructure, remain stable, which enables effective planning for longer periods:

We need to plan not just for 5 or 10 years, but for longer periods. Certain undertakings, such as improving the quality of education or innovation, require planning for decades. Without long-term thinking, we will not achieve the goals that are crucial for the future of our country.

Norbert Kołos then turned the discussion towards the biggest threats in the 2035 perspective. Although the experts mentioned various problems that the country may face in the coming years, they mostly agreed that each threat can also be seen as an opportunity. 

The main problems that came through in the discussion were demographic threats (including declining fertility rates), the uncertainty of Poland’s economic growth and climate warming, which, although predictable, could have far-reaching effects, especially on biodiversity. Dr Jakub Sawulski, in turn, drew attention to growing educational inequalities, which, in his view, may in the long term negatively affect the quality of human capital and the country’s future economic growth:

This phenomenon concerns not only Poland, and its causes and consequences have an economic dimension. The quality of human capital is currently one of the most important factors in economic growth.

The presenter concluded this part of the discussion as follows: I fully agree that any threat can be seen as an opportunity. (…) the key is often who copes better with a given threat. If we can cope better, even in the face of challenges, it can be to our advantage.

Among the opportunities that could ensure a better and more effective development of Poland and increase the ability to achieve strategic goals, technological progress was mentioned above all. Used appropriately, it could attempt to eliminate the threats mentioned earlier. For example, changes in the labour market related to new technologies could increase the flexibility of employees, enabling them to work longer, which is particularly important in the context of an ageing society. In addition, attention was drawn to the need for territorialisation of development, i.e. adapting policies to the specific needs of different Polish regions. Prof. Rafał Matyja noted that housing problems vary from region to region: In each part of the country, housing problems are quite different…. There are cities that have a problem with depopulation and housing stock. A similar position was presented by Prof. Agnieszka Sowa-Kofta when talking about possible investments in smaller towns, which in turn would reduce economic and social inequalities. She also stated that migration, with the right migration policy, could have a positive impact in the face of two crises: demographic and labour market. 

The final topic addressed by the experts was the energy transition. They discussed the key aspects of this process and what needs to be done to make changes in the energy sector socially acceptable. The panellists agreed that the transformation of this sector is inevitable and necessary, but requires coordinated action and innovative solutions. Professor Krystian Szczepański of the Institute of Environmental Protection emphasised that in Poland, biomass production could significantly reduce CO2 emissions and support the transition to a circular economy. However, one of the biggest challenges still remains public acceptance of biogas plant investments and the understanding that their construction involves a lengthy process of preparation and implementation. Therefore, it is necessary to educate the public about the benefits of the energy transition.

The conference emphasised that Poland’s future depends not only on the ability to adapt to changing conditions or to take advantage of available opportunities. It is also important to consciously consider the numerous opportunities and threats, as well as the uncertainties associated with them, and on their basis to determine the future possible directions of the country’s transformation, which will make it possible to define the key priorities supporting the country’s sustainable development. The Concept for National Development 2050 (KRK2050), as a vision and foresight document, may become an indispensable element of such a conscious and modern approach to building Poland’s development strategy.

Link to broadcast.