“Transatlantic Trends 2022” is finally out! The report, one of the best sources of knowledge for those who want to keep an eye on transatlantic cooperation. It also offers some interesting signals about the future. 

The transatlantic community still sees the US as the most influential actor in the globe, yet, according to respondents, its influence will diminish in the next five years. What’s even more worrying for the future position of the United States, is that younger people tend to have a less positive view of US influence in the world than older participants of the survey. The “old hegemon” has to rejuvenate itself to be more attractive to the youth – that’s quite a challenge for US foreign policy.

The public lives in a kind of dissonance when evaluating China’s role in international relations. In a couple of countries, respondents find it difficult to describe China unambiguously as a partner, competitor or a rival. A plurality of the public supports a tougher approach towards China – with France, Canada and the Netherlands in the lead – interestingly though, when it comes to new technologies, they lean towards more cooperation. We don’t know whether the public will finally make up its mind on whether China is a good or a bad cop, but we are quite sure that this dissonance will continue to inform the transatlantic community’s approach towards the country in the next few years. 

The results of the report are a warning sign for Germany. Even though Germany is still seen as one of the most reliable partners, its reputation as an ally has seen a noticeable drop, especially in Poland, Turkey, US and Spain. Preventing it to become  a trend may be one of the biggest challenges for Germany’s foreign policy’s transatlantic vector in the following years. It would be good for the EU’s cohesion if Germany succeeds in this endeavor.  

When it comes to the future of US-European relations, the report has some soothing insights. About 50% of the public believes US-European relations will remain stable in the next five years and 27% thinks they will become even closer. Wishful thinking? We hope not! 

What about Poland? 

One can say that Poland remains the United States’ stronghold in the transatlantic community. Not only do the Poles have the most positive view of US influence in global affairs, but they are also at the forefront of those who approve of President Biden’s handling of international affairs. Quite a news after all.

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