To chart a path towards the desired visions for 2050 and define a successful strategy, Veolia and other market players needed to collaborate and obtain the input of all stakeholders. The task at hand was to lay the groundwork for plans and strategies by initiating an open debate about potential solutions with representatives of energy companies, the public sector, financial entities, the industry and society in general.
To prepare for future challenges, Veolia Energy Poland commissioned 4CF to conduct an analysis devoted to the future of Polish municipal energy markets by 2050.
The Energy 2050 project was implemented with the participation of numerous industry experts. A wide range of analytical methods and instruments was employed to conduct research.
In addition to the study and the development of scenarios, 4CF organised a workshop attended by external energy-market experts.
The transformacja2050.pl portal was also created to publish interesting materials about the future of the energy transformation.
In the course of the project, 4CF developed three scenarios of the future for the Polish energy market. Each outlines a different vision of the macro-environment, the energy mix and the market. The “Res-Topia” scenario describes a world of advanced technologies. Renewable energy sources dominate the energy mix. The energy market is decentralised and highly competitive. The “Nuclear Hot” scenario assumes that Poland has been very slow to take measures aimed at climate change mitigation. Cooling systems are being installed on a large scale in Polish cities and metropolises; nuclear energy is developing. The market remains centralised and dominated by big players. The last scenario, “Coal Returns”, describes a reality where the pressure to reduce CO2 emissions is decreasing. In this variant of the future, the Polish market is in a climate- and economy-induced crisis. The resources of coal, which remains the primary source of energy, are shrinking.
The 2050 scenarios lay the groundwork for further debate on future energy sources and solutions that respond to key challenges. The Transformacja 2050 portal is a forum for such considerations and a platform for open discussions regarding the future of energy in Polish cities. The content is created in cooperation with a wide group of experts representing the full range of the sector’s stakeholders, and the articles describe various solutions that may play a role in the future of municipal energy markets.
The content also includes video materials, some of which are still in development. They contain interviews with crucial stakeholders on the transformation and the future of the energy market.