The Bureau of Strategy and Analysis at Warsaw City Hall commissioned a study to assist in managing development processes within the city of Warsaw and its metropolitan area. The study aimed to identify the degree and extent to which the trends identified during the analysis impact development. The results are intended to support the formulation of a long-term development policy for the city and its metropolitan area, enhancing preparedness for change by capitalising on opportunities and addressing potential threats anticipated through to the 2050s.

The study was conducted in four stages:

1. Identification and description of trends, including an assessment of their relevance to the metropolis.
2. Identification and description of the projected impacts of these trends from a 2050 perspective.
3. Identification and description of development challenges anticipated by 2050.
4. Formulation of recommendations for actions to address the identified challenges.

The research work involved subject matter experts specialising in six thematic areas: social, economic, climate-environmental, spatial, geopolitical, and technological. Additionally, experts and stakeholders contributed through workshops, surveys, and in-depth interviews.

The final product was a report highlighting the phenomena to be considered when planning the future development of the metropolis and formulating strategic plans. It also included recommendations with suggested strategic courses of action.

The multi-stage research process has yielded several crucial conclusions that must be considered in discussions regarding the development of the Warsaw metropolis. Notably, the trend effects with the most substantial positive impact on the metropolis, and a high probability of occurrence, are centred on issues related to climate change mitigation. Specifically, these include emission-free electricity production, especially local generation; air pollution; and environmentally efficient construction.

An extremely significant theme highlighted by the experts was the necessity for legislative changes to facilitate progress in these areas, as well as the need for swift action due to the protracted nature of the transition to carbon-free technologies. While this issue is not unique to the Warsaw metropolitan area and affects the entire country, addressing it is crucial to ensuring the desired trajectory and pace of development for the metropolis from business, technological, and social perspectives. Furthermore, adapting the metropolis’s strategic and investment plans to effectively manage this transition will require the coordinated efforts of multiple stakeholders and substantial financial resources.

There were numerous developments with a high probability of having particularly negative effects on the metropolis, outweighing the positive ones. These can be categorised into several groups. The most frequently cited concerns centred on socio-economic processes that, by 2050, could lead to increased stratification and polarisation, potentially resulting in heightened unrest or criminal activity.

Another critical issue related to social phenomena is the ageing population, which will necessitate reorganisation in several areas, including public services (to ensure system capacity), architectural accessibility, social inclusion, and the redistribution of wealth. According to experts, the highest level of probability is also associated with threats from rising cybercrime. This represents a significant challenge for both public administration and businesses, as the digitalisation of life and the growing amount of data collected online escalate the risk of online threats.

A key conclusion of the project is that all identified challenges were deemed highly urgent and important and should be addressed concurrently if possible. Similarly, the recommendations made to tackle these challenges should be regarded with equal importance. However, two challenges stand out as particularly crucial for enhancing the development opportunities of the metropolis.

The first involves ensuring effective collaboration between local government units. This is especially vital given the rapid pace of global change across social, economic, environmental, spatial, and technological domains, and the increasing interdependence among these areas. It was frequently noted that the absence of appropriate legal frameworks to facilitate necessary actions and the lack of synergy between government actions and those of metropolitan local governments could pose significant barriers. Insufficient cooperation may exacerbate territorial disparities, leading to social, cultural, and spatial segregation, depopulation of city centres, excessive population growth in peripheral areas, and challenging access to public services and infrastructure, including public transport.