The aim of this pilot project was to identify which of the new emerging trends and weak signals can significantly influence the drugs field in the European Union by 2030. 

The study covered 25 hypotheses about the future that could influence the drugs field in the European Union. These were derived from the results of the EMCDDA Futures exercise “The future of drug monitoring in Europe until 2030” and extended via desk research covering additional relevant information sources, such as the EU Strategy and Action Plan on drugs 2021-25 or selected foresight reports. The theses were further discussed, complemented, and refined during three workshops with the EMCDDA representatives.

In order to identify which of the new emerging trends and weak signals can significantly influence the drugs field in the European Union by 2030, a real-time Delphi study was designed and conducted on the 4CF HalnyX online platform. A total of 22 selected experts (EMCDDA staff and Scientific Committee members) were invited to join the online Delphi study.

The experts paid particular attention to selected phenomena that, in their opinion, will have by far the greatest impact. These included among others: cannabis policy and digitisation in the drug field. In their opinion, the given phenomena are likely to appear in the future. Experts considered innovations in drug trafficking and innovations in neuroscience (among others) to be the most challenging to anticipate. The experts agreed that innovations in drug distribution and increasing instability in Europe’s neighbouring regions are among the phenomena whose greatest impact on the drug field can be expected to occur at the earliest.